LNP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Powell, since 2009.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Glass House includes parts of Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast council areas. It stretches from near Caboolture, as well as Elimbah, Beerburrum, Glass House Mountains, Eudlo, Palmwoods, Maleny, Woodford, Mount Mee and Conondale.
History
The seat of Glass House has existed in its current form since 2001, although a seat with the same name existed from 1986 to 1992.
Carolyn Male first won the seat for the ALP in 2001. She was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but the redistribution before the 2009 election made Glass House much harder for the ALP to win. Male instead ran in the new seat of Pine Rivers, and won that seat.
Glass House was won in 2009 by the LNP’s Andrew Powell. Powell has been re-elected three times, in 2012, 2015 and 2017.
Candidates
- Graeme Campbell (One Nation)
- James McDonald (United Australia)
- Brent Hampstead (Labor)
- Andrew McLean (Greens)
- Andrew Powell (Liberal National)
- Laressa McCoy (Informed Medical Options)
Assessment
Glass House is a marginal seat but definitely leans towards the LNP.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Powell | Liberal National | 10,221 | 35.5 | -8.1 |
| Brent Hampstead | Labor | 7,557 | 26.3 | -5.2 |
| Tracey Bell-Henselin | One Nation | 6,525 | 22.7 | +22.7 |
| Sue Weber | Greens | 3,705 | 12.9 | -1.3 |
| Sue Mureau | Independent | 765 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Informal | 1,068 | 3.6 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Powell | Liberal National | 15,373 | 53.4 | +2.5 |
| Brent Hampstead | Labor | 13,400 | 46.6 | -2.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Glass House have been divided into three areas: central, north and south. The south covers those booths in Moreton Bay council area, while the centre and the north cover those within the Sunshine Coast council area.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (51.9%) and the south (53.9%), while Labor polled 51.5% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 26.7 | 7.9 | 53.9 | 6,641 | 23.1 |
| North | 18.0 | 20.0 | 48.5 | 6,051 | 21.0 |
| Central | 24.3 | 11.3 | 51.9 | 3,847 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 21.5 | 12.6 | 54.8 | 7,482 | 26.0 |
| Other votes | 23.6 | 12.4 | 58.2 | 4,752 | 16.5 |
Election results in Glass House at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for One Nation and the Greens.
September prediction: LNP retain, the media foolishly let’s us believe each election Labor is a chance here but they can’t win a seat like this unless they have a moderate running to help elect a moderate/centrist Labor opposition (think Labor in WA) against an incumbent and unpopular LNP gov. The people in these parts will vote Labor at times, they aren’t staunch LNP but they lean conservative in their values so if they feel there’s some sort of wokeness in Labor, they won’t vote for them. Abortion laws will hurt Labor here badly. I know this seat well. Shame because Powell is a dud local member. Would like to see Labor have a real crack with a good candidate.
I know when LNP internal polling was leaked in June. It showed Labor and the LNP two party preferred locked at 50-50 in this seat. Labor did announce their candidate in Glasshouse a year out from the election which speaks volumes they think their a chance in this seat. The Labor primary vote needs to be higher though, anything under 30% won’t likely get it done. That’s taking in consideration there is a significant Greens and One Nation vote in this seat.
I would think its easy to announce a candidate early (ie. a year out) when its the same one as the last election.
That’s a high Green vote up in the hinterland around Maleny, so that’s just a preference flow locked in.
I originally had this as a LNP Retain but have changed my mind as the campaign has gone on. I can actually see a swing in the lower end towards ALP as the COVID stuff plays well there but a swing to LNP in the north. Since the candidate was announced early, this maybe why I’m also giving this seat a little more doubt but I think I might be too generous to Labor’s chances.
Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – Lean LNP
On top of what Politics Obsessed said, I’ve met Hampstead who is a personable and likeable guy. It seems like he works hard too, so that should help him here. I have an eye on this seat.
When I did my statewide predictions, I realised Labor need to win here to offset losses in North Queensland (Townsville 3, Barron River and Keppel all seem very tough holds at least) and have a more credible path to government than the LNP,
In Labor’s corner, It seems like the Greens are actually trying in their strong areas (their candidate seems to be posting lots of campaign photos and not just shared content). Labor targeting neighbouring Pumicestone and Caloundra will also help.
Keeping my eye out – it seems like a more optimistic prospect than Chatsworth or Clayfield.
What makes this seat especially interesting to me is how it tends to have both Greens and One Nation vote shares above their respective state averages. That’s quite rare. (Bundamba also featured this at the by-election.)
Sorry this just needs to be seen.
LNP INCREASED 2.5% in 2017. ON presumably preferenced against LNP. How ‘s this going to go different. Where is the direction ? Let alone momentum. This speculation of change must be wildly improbable
LNP HOLD seriously
PHON preferences split 62/38 to LNP last time. I am not sure how they preferenced but I do remember there being materials (I think Andrew Laming linked) encouraging PHON voters to preference LNP.
It won’t be an easy gain but Labor do seem to be trying here and Labor need to find seats in SEQ to offset losses in NQ.
One Nation exclusion went 62% to LNP and 38% to ALP in 2017 winediamond. Not impossible that the ON card directed preferences to Labor but I wouldn’t be so sure.
If you would like to assume the best case scenario of ON flow to LNP (80%) that’s a 4% 2PP buffer from the notional numbers.
jOHN
Just because Labor NEED it, doesn’t mean it will happen. I’d expect something altogether different….!
Bennee
You’re correct that i made an assumption. However it is a reasonable one, unlike yours if you’ll forgive me for pointing it out ? Do correct me if i’m wrong, but you seem to feel that there is no chance of the Labor vote flowing elsewhere !?. That is quite a stretch..! Has the govt been covering itself in glory lately ?
The One Nation and Green votes both being high in this electorate make it possibly the most likely candidate, at some future election, for the ALP to win from third on primaries. Something I believe they have never done, making me a bit curious as to why the ALP has never shown any interest in changing the preferential system back to Contingent Voting (with its single round of preferences distribution, no winning from third place) used in Queensland 1892-1942 (Queensland`s longest running continuously used electoral system, unless you count its time in New South Wales towards FPTP, drawing them equal).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_vote
Labor polling showing this is down to the wire.
Final prediction: LNP retain, sticking to my earlier comments that some conservative issues will hurt Labor here.
Prediction: LNP Retain
I keep changing my mind on this one. LNP retain on a very thin margin.
Too close to call